ECB survey: euro-area households lift 12-month inflation expectations to 3.1%
The ECB’s September Consumer Expectations Survey found median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while three- and five-year expectations stayed at 2.9% and 2.5%. Households also lowered their 12-month growth outlook to -1.5% and raised expected unemployment to 11.3%, according to the ECB survey.
Bottom line — The ECB’s next survey results, covering October, are scheduled for 27 November 2026.
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The ECB survey put perceived inflation over the previous 12 months at 3.6%, up from 3.5% in August.
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The ECB said uncertainty about year-ahead inflation expectations increased slightly and remained above its level before the Middle East conflict.
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Households raised expected nominal income growth to 1.1% and spending growth to 3.7%, the ECB reported.
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Expected home-price growth edged up to 3.5%, while mortgage-rate expectations held at 4.9%, according to the ECB.
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The ECB said more households reported tighter credit access over the past year and expected conditions to tighten further.