UN says pledges still point to 2.6°C warming; current policies to 2.8°C
UNEP’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report projects 2.6°C of warming by 2100 even if countries meet their latest climate pledges; current policies point to 2.8°C. The report says the 1.5°C limit will be overshot, but rapid emissions cuts could limit the peak and help bring temperatures back below that threshold by century’s end.
Bottom line — UNEP says the lowest-overshoot pathway requires emissions cuts of 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
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UNEP says global emissions in 2025 remained near 2024’s record, with emissions from coal, oil and gas rising slightly.
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The report says the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emissions estimates worsened its outlook from last year.
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Preliminary 2025 data showed emissions rising in the United States, Indonesia and China, and falling in India, Russia and the European Union, according to UNEP.
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The United States recorded the largest emissions increase among major economies: 133 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent, driven by higher electricity demand and more coal power, the report says.
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UNEP’s lowest-overshoot scenario peaks at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century, then returns to 1.5°C or below by 2100 with a 50% chance.
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That pathway would require removing and permanently storing about 320 gigatonnes of CO₂ this century; UNEP says the feasibility is uncertain.
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The report says renewable energy has expanded faster than expected since the Paris Agreement, while coal and oil energy supply has grown more slowly than projected.
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COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, is due to begin in November, where countries will take stock of climate action, according to the UN.