UN meteorologists say El Niño will peak in December, possibly strongest since 1950
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño will keep intensifying before peaking in December, bringing above-average temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns. Its forecast puts Pacific sea-surface anomalies near 3.7C above normal for October to December, above the 2.6C record set in 2015-2016. Al Jazeera reports that Citigroup economists estimate losses of as much as 7 trillion euros (about $7 trillion) over five years.
Bottom line — Citigroup's estimate of up to 7 trillion euros in losses over five years makes this event a major economic concern, not just a weather one.
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The WMO's Celeste Saulo said there is a near-100 percent likelihood the event persists through February 2027, and that El Niño releases heat already stored in the ocean rather than adding new heat.
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Al Jazeera quotes the Met Office's Adam Scaife calling the forecast signal unprecedented, and its Nick Dunstone saying 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record.
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Greenpeace argues the event compounds human-driven warming, while noting that the high-emissions scenario was judged implausible in a recent update, a point it says US President Donald Trump disputed.
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Morgan Stanley's Julia Rizzo said the event could affect supply chains, prices and investment returns, with wetter conditions possibly helping Argentine and southern Brazilian yields.
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The World Food Programme warned that El Niño could compound food-system strain from high energy and fertiliser prices linked to the US war on Iran, and forecasts 274 million people facing acute hunger by end-2027, up 49 million.
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Wikipedia's entry reports Copernicus measured a record average sea surface temperature of 21.11C (70.00F) on 22 August 2026, and that Indonesian wildfire smoke briefly made Kuala Lumpur the most polluted city on earth, according to IQAir data.
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ABS-CBN, relaying AFP, notes that the Philippines has 106 areas under a state of calamity due to El Niño, according to its disaster agency.