Brent nears $100 as US-Iran clashes choke Hormuz tanker traffic to a two-month low
Oil prices rose to a six-week high as renewed US-Iran fighting raised concern about supply through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent trading around $97 a barrel (about €84) according to Gulf News. Maritime analytics firm Kpler said an average of about 10 commodity ships a day crossed the strait over the previous 10 days, the lowest since May. Oilprice.com reported Brent back above $105 (about €91) as Iranian attacks on tankers increased.
Bottom line — Goldman Sachs has warned Brent could reach $120 (about €103) if attacks on Middle Eastern shipping intensify, per Gulf News.
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Al Jazeera reports Middle East crude exports climbed to 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels a day in late September, above the roughly 18 million before the war, according to Kpler data.
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Kpler analyst Michelle Brohard suggested some countries may be paying Iran for safe passage through Hormuz, a claim Al Jazeera notes is unverified and presented as speculation.
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Academic Abdul Khalique told Al Jazeera a transit-fee arrangement would be an informal security mechanism rather than a formal levy, and that UNCLOS makes formal tolls legally dubious.
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The US government sanctioned digital assets firm BitBank in September, which it said had been used by Iran's Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority to move money to Tehran, Al Jazeera reports.
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Oilprice.com quoted ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes saying producers appear willing to risk vessel damage because there is no alternative route to international markets.
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Oilprice.com said Gulf exports are increasingly routed via Saudi and UAE pipelines and the Red Sea, with Kpler estimating 40% now bypass Hormuz.
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Iran's IRGC commander Ali Fadavi called the 3 to 4 million barrels a day on the US-supervised route 'negligible' compared with pre-war traffic, per Al Jazeera.
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Gulf News reports US gasoline averaged about $4.15 a gallon (about €3.80), up from $4.08 a week earlier, citing AAA.
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Chris Beauchamp of IG Group told Al Jazeera the bottleneck is now shipping capacity, with freight rates rising as the shuttle system needs more vessels.