Cambridge researchers project nearly 1 million km² less Arctic winter ice
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and Mexico’s CIMAT used sea-ice biomarkers preserved in sediment from 6,000 years ago to refine projections, finding future Arctic winter ice extent may be nearly 1 million km² lower than earlier estimates. Their study in Nature Geoscience says weighting 27 climate models against the ancient evidence reduced projection uncertainty by 85%.
Bottom line — The revised models also point to potentially greater winter snowfall in southeast Greenland and precipitation in the Mediterranean.
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The researchers analysed 46 biomarker records from ocean sediment cores, comparing them with simulations of the mid-Holocene.
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Nature Geoscience reports that the weighted projections are 4–6% lower than the unweighted model average for 2090–2099.
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The study says the revised projection narrows the end-of-century uncertainty range by more than 10 million km² in its highest-emissions scenario.
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The authors estimate Mediterranean winter–spring precipitation could be twice the amount projected by the unweighted model ensemble by the end of the century.
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The study notes that links between Arctic ice loss and mid-latitude weather remain under investigation.