NASA panel estimates 22 Starship launches to refuel a Moon lander
Charlie Precourt of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel said the latest estimate for refuelling SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander is around 22 launches, calling the process a risk for Artemis IV, targeted for 2028. Elon Musk disputed the figure on X, predicting 6 to 8 launches; Ars Technica notes that losses from propellant boil-off and transfer efficiency remain uncertain.
Bottom line — The 22-launch estimate could mean roughly three months to fill an orbital depot, even at twice-weekly Starship launches.
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Ars Technica reports that the estimate concerns launches to fill an orbital depot before the lander departs for the Moon.
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Precourt did not name Starship; Ars Technica says the estimate could refer only to SpaceX’s lander among NASA’s current crewed landing plans.
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Teslarati says each tanker flight would be a separate rocket launch, adding time and potential failure points before astronauts leave Earth.
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According to Teslarati, the count depends on how much propellant each tanker can carry and how much is lost through boil-off and during transfers.
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NASA’s 2026 plan targets the first crewed lunar landing for Artemis IV in early 2028, according to Wikipedia’s updated entry.
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Wikipedia notes that SpaceX’s propellant-storage and ship-to-ship transfer tests remain milestones for the lander programme.