Kenya overtakes Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in dollar terms
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook puts Kenya ahead of Ethiopia in nominal GDP measured in US dollars, with Kenya’s economy projected at about €130.2 billion ($151.15 billion). The IMF estimates Ethiopia grew faster in real terms in 2025, but the birr’s depreciation reduced the dollar value of its output while a stronger Kenyan shilling lifted Kenya’s ranking.
Bottom line — The IMF projects Ethiopia to grow 9.2% in 2026, against 4.5% for Kenya, despite Kenya’s lead in dollar-valued GDP.
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Pan African Visions reports Kenya’s 2025 real growth at 4.6%, compared with Ethiopia’s 9.2%, citing the IMF.
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According to Pan African Visions, Ethiopia moved towards a more market-determined exchange rate in July 2024 as part of reforms backed by an IMF facility of about €2.9 billion ($3.4 billion).
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Pan African Visions says Kenya’s nominal GDP in dollar terms rose about 13.7% in 2025, while Ethiopia’s fell sharply from its 2024 level.
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Pan African Visions reports Kenya’s public debt at 72.9% of GDP and its projected 2026 fiscal deficit at 6.6% of GDP.
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Ethiopia Today puts 2026 inflation in Ethiopia at 11.7% and reports estimated GDP per capita of €973 ($1,130) for Ethiopia and €2,401 ($2,790) for Kenya.