Study finds global warming has accelerated, putting 1.5°C within reach before 2030
A study published in Nature reports that the global warming rate doubled between 2011 and 2025, reaching 0.40°C per decade, and projects a long-term crossing of 1.5°C by 2028 if that pace continues. A separate study covered by ScienceDaily found a statistically significant acceleration since around 2015 and said the threshold could be exceeded before 2030 if the recent rate persists.
Bottom line — The Nature study says 26 climate models did not capture the observed doubling in the warming rate.
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Nature’s analysis puts the rate at 0.20°C per decade across 1971–2025, compared with 0.40°C per decade during 2011–2025.
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The Nature study attributes most of the acceleration to warming across East Asia–the North Pacific, mid-latitude Eurasia and the South Atlantic–Antarctic regions.
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The 26-model ensemble in the Nature study simulated warming of 0.29°C per decade, below the observed recent rate.
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ScienceDaily reports that researchers adjusted five temperature datasets for natural influences including El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar activity.
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The ScienceDaily study found the adjusted acceleration with more than 98% statistical certainty; it focused on detecting the change in pace, not explaining its causes.
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UNEP says temperatures can still return below 1.5°C, but its proposed route involves immediate emissions cuts, adaptation and, eventually, net-negative emissions.
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UNEP says its most optimistic scenario peaks at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.