PC shipments fall but revenue rises as memory crunch drives up prices
Global PC shipments fell 4.9% year-on-year in Q2 2026, the first decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth, per IDC. But vendors are pushing through price increases faster than demand drops, so revenue is climbing — HP's PC revenue rose 18% despite a 16% unit decline. The culprit is a memory shortage tied to AI infrastructure demand, with no relief expected before 2028.
Bottom line — IDC forecasts average PC prices will rise 17% in 2026 and won't return to 2025 levels.
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- The memory shortage is driven by AI data centres bidding up DRAM and HBM supply, per Omdia and IDC. Memory costs have risen 40–70% since 2025, Omdia reports.
- Entry-level PCs are hit hardest: shipments of sub-€460 (sub-$500) machines fell 18.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, per Omdia. Smaller vendors risk being squeezed out entirely by 2028, Omdia analyst Jessop warned.
- Apple bucked the trend with the MacBook Neo, launching at €550 ($599) and driving a 10–16% shipment increase, per IDC and TechRadar. But even Apple raised prices €90–€275 ($100–$300) across its lineup.
- Commercial buyers account for roughly 75% of PC volume, per UBS analyst David Vogt, and are relatively resilient as enterprises adopt AI PCs. But some demand is pulled forward to avoid future price hikes, he cautioned.
- IDC expects global PC shipments to decline 11.3% for full-year 2026, with Q4 shipments falling 20% year-on-year. Omdia predicts US shipments won't recover to 2025 levels until 2029.
- Vendors are signing long-term memory supply contracts to secure components, per IDC, which may further disadvantage smaller players with less negotiating power.