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Science · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 10 sources

IEA sees global coal demand hitting record in 2026 as war drives gas-to-coal switch

The International Energy Agency now expects global coal demand to rise 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tonnes, reversing its earlier forecast of a slight decline. The shift is driven by the Middle East conflict, which has squeezed LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed up natural gas prices, prompting countries including European states, Japan, South Korea and China to burn more coal. A strong El Niño is also boosting cooling demand and cutting hydropower in Asia.

Bottom line — The IEA now forecasts 2026 coal demand at 8.94 billion tonnes, reversing its earlier expectation of a decline.

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  • The IEA's Coal Mid-Year Update 2026 attributes the surge to higher natural gas prices caused by a huge drop in LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, even though virtually no coal passes through that route, the agency said.
  • Europe, Japan, South Korea, China and other markets have increased coal-fired generation because they have spare coal capacity and gas-fired power fleets, the IEA found.
  • China also raised coal consumption for chemical production due to high oil prices, according to the IEA.
  • A particularly strong El Niño is expected to support coal demand in India and Vietnam through higher cooling needs and lower hydropower output, the agency noted.
  • Global coal production is set to decline in 2026 after a record 2025, remaining above 9 billion tonnes for a third year, the IEA said. The drop is driven by Chinese safety inspections after a May mine accident that killed 82 people.
  • The narrowing gap between production and demand is expected to boost international coal prices, the IEA said, as lower Chinese output and stronger demand from Japan and Korea tighten supply.
  • The outlook for 2027 is highly uncertain: if LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover and natural gas prices fall to pre-war levels, coal demand could decline; if the Strait stays closed, demand could rise further, per the IEA.

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Last generated: Sep 11, 9:51 AM UTC by wreetco wreetco

dstld. Your daily news summary designed to surface the news that matters from a European perspective. Curated by humans, summarized by AI - always with links back to the original reporting.

Links · Contact
Popular topics · WorldEuropeGamesAI
Last generated: Sep 11, 9:51 AM UTC by wreetco wreetco