Global Economy · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 6
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Russia's budget deficit hits 2.5% of GDP as spending outpaces revenue
Russia's federal budget deficit reached 5.8 trillion rubles (€62bn) in the first eight months of 2026, or 2.5% of GDP, one and a half times more than the same period last year, per Meduza. The Kremlin downplays the risk, but analysts point to a deteriorating economy with falling business confidence and shrinking reserves.
Bottom line — Russia's deficit is set to exceed 4% of GDP in 2025 by some measures, per independent analysts.
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- Spending rose 14.7% year-on-year to 31.7 trillion rubles (€338bn), while revenue grew only 9.2%, per the Finance Ministry as reported by Meduza. Oil and gas revenue fell 16.7%.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the deficit is not an indicator of serious concern and macroeconomic stability is assured, per Meduza and the National Security Journal.
- President Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum that the deficit poses no ‘critical’ risk because Russia has 'one of the lowest levels of national debt in the world,' per The Moscow Times.
- Russia's central bank reported its Business Climate Index fell to -3.6 in July 2026, the weakest since the early months of the 2022 invasion, per the National Security Journal.
- Regional and extra-budgetary funds added 1.3% more to the 2025 deficit, bringing the consolidated total to 3.9% of GDP (8.3 trillion rubles, €89bn), per analyst Janis Kluge citing Finance Ministry data.
- The Finance Ministry canceled three bond auctions in June and July when yields exceeded 16%, refusing to borrow at such high rates, per Meduza. Domestic borrowing may become costly.
- Russia's national debt has grown to roughly 30% of GDP from 13% pre-2022 war, per the KSE Institute and the Lviv Herald, raising concern about financial stability.