Ukraine claims strikes have disabled 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity
Ukraine’s Defence Ministry says long-range strikes have put 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity out of action, threatening fuel supplies to Russian forces. The claim has not been independently verified, but Vladimir Putin said the attacks had cost Russia about 1% of GDP; the International Energy Agency reports falling diesel output and pressure on global supplies.
Bottom line — The IEA expects Russian refinery throughput to average 4 million barrels a day for the rest of 2026 and through 2027.
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Putin acknowledged the economic cost at the Valdai Forum, saying the strikes had achieved their aim “partially”, according to the Guardian.
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The IEA says Russian diesel output was nearly 30% lower than a year earlier, while motorists reported waits of up to 40 hours at fuel stations.
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According to the IEA, repeated damage to complex refinery units can take six to eight months to repair; Western sanctions limit access to some equipment suppliers.
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Russia’s government restricted fuel exports and lowered fuel-quality standards to protect domestic supplies, the IEA reports.
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The IEA says tighter diesel markets have pushed diesel refining margins above €100 per barrel in north-west Europe and the US Gulf Coast.