US aid cuts left HIV services in Uganda and Zimbabwe down by up to 72%
A study by LSE and Duke University found that four NGOs in Uganda and Zimbabwe saw HIV prevention, testing and treatment services fall sharply after US aid cuts in 2025. By March 2026, services remained far below 2024 levels despite a humanitarian waiver intended to protect lifesaving care—a warning for European donors as well as local health systems.
Bottom line — Across the four NGOs, HIV testing fell by up to 64% and treatment by up to 32%, according to the study.
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The Lancet Global Health study tracked routine monthly and quarterly service data from January 2023 to March 2026.
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The authors measured declines of 37%–63% in prevention, 43%–72% in PrEP, 22%–32% in treatment and 59%–64% in testing, against 2024 averages.
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LSE researcher Henry Cust said the waiver had limited effect because funding and medicine-delivery systems had been dismantled.
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CeSHHAR Zimbabwe’s Byrone Chingombe said some people using its services no longer trusted the organisation after it disappeared without notice.
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The study focused on NGOs serving groups including sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender people and people who inject drugs; LSE said community-based care is often their only option.
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Cust said the findings should not be generalised beyond the data, though they may reflect a wider pattern among services reliant on USAID contracts.