Refinery strikes lift European diesel prices as new capacity shifts east
Refinery attacks have tightened supplies of finished fuel, pushing the EU’s average diesel price to a record €2.23 a litre, according to ProtoThema. Meanwhile, BloombergNEF forecasts global refining capacity will grow by 4.2 million barrels a day by 2030, with Africa and Asia Pacific accounting for 95% of the net increase.
Bottom line — Europe faces record diesel prices now, while BloombergNEF expects most new refining capacity to come from Africa and Asia Pacific.
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ProtoThema reports that attacks have knocked out up to 3.52 million barrels a day of refining capacity, or 3.5% of global output.
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Combined diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East have fallen 75% compared with previous years, ProtoThema says.
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The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of fuel over four months; ProtoThema reports that a substantial diesel release was planned for the first 20 days.
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ProtoThema says Greek refineries exported 1.7 million tonnes of HELLENiQ ENERGY products in the first half of 2026, including rising volumes of diesel and jet fuel.
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BloombergNEF expects refinery retirements, primarily in Europe and North America, to cut global capacity by around 200,000 barrels a day through 2030.
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BloombergNEF says planned capacity growth could exceed demand growth for refined products, increasing competition and putting pressure on refining margins.
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China and India are forecast to account for 71% of capacity additions in 2026 and 2027, according to BloombergNEF.