Goldman raises Brent forecast to €78, sees retreat from €92 highs

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent oil price forecast by $5 to €78 ($85), but expects prices to fall from current levels near €92 ($99.46). The bank warns that prolonged Gulf disruption could push Brent above €110 ($120), a risk for European energy costs and inflation.

Bottom line — Goldman's base case sees Brent at €78 by December, but prolonged Gulf disruption could push it above €110.

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• Goldman now forecasts Brent at €78 ($85) for December 2026 and €74 ($80) for 2027, assuming Middle East shipping disruptions continue into 2027, the bank said.
• The global supply deficit has narrowed from about 7 million barrels per day in March to 1 million in the third quarter as Gulf production recovers and demand stays soft, according to Goldman.
• Commercial oil inventories held on land across OECD economies have barely declined since the war began, with more of the drawdown concentrated in strategic reserves, oil at sea and China, the bank noted.
• The US Energy Information Administration documented increased US petroleum exports as buyers sought alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
• Goldman added that price-sensitive Chinese crude imports are likely to moderate price upside.
• In an upside scenario, Brent could exceed €110 ($120) if average Gulf output in 2027 stays 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, versus 500,000 barrels below in the base case, Goldman said.

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