Brazil’s election puts Amazon protections and US ties in play
Brazil votes on Sunday in a close presidential contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the Amazon’s future and the country’s foreign policy at stake. The Associated Press reports deforestation fell 45% under Lula, while the candidates offer different approaches to forest protection; the result could also shift Brazil’s relations with Washington and Beijing.
Bottom line — The 4 October vote could decide whether Brazil keeps its 2030 goal of zero net deforestation.
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The Associated Press says deforestation rose about 60% under Jair Bolsonaro’s 2019–22 presidency, with more than 45,000 km² cleared; under Lula, it has fallen 45% to its lowest level in more than a decade.
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Lula’s target is zero net deforestation by 2030; Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029, but has not set out detailed Amazon policies, according to the Associated Press.
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The Associated Press reports Bolsonaro has promised to ease licensing for farming, ranching and mining, and said Indigenous communities should be free to decide whether to farm, lease or mine their land.
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Climate Observatory director Márcio Astrini warned the Associated Press that a Bolsonaro victory could weaken enforcement; Taciana Stec of the Talanoa think tank cautioned that legalising currently prohibited clearing could let deforestation rise while meeting his pledge.
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According to the Associated Press, landowners in the Amazon generally must preserve 80% of native vegetation on their properties; a 2019 bill co-sponsored by Flávio Bolsonaro to end that requirement was dropped after agribusiness opposition.
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The Council on Foreign Relations says Lula has deepened cooperation with China, while Bolsonaro has called for closer US ties and said Brazil could join Washington’s Shield of the Americas security initiative.
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Axios reports the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on some Brazilian goods this summer; Lula has cast US pressure as interference, while Trump has said he is following the election closely without endorsing a candidate.
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The Council on Foreign Relations says a runoff is due on 25 October if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes.