Europe faces costly winter as gas storage hits 15-year low

European gas storage is at 67% capacity, the lowest in 15 years, per Ekathimerini, as LNG disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure push prices to their highest since December 2022. Households face steep heating and electricity bills, with Greece seeing heating oil costs up 65-70% year-on-year, per ProtoThema.

Bottom line — Energy Aspects projects European storage at a 14-year low by November, leaving little buffer against a cold winter.

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• EU storage is at roughly 68% as of Sept. 14, per Gas Infrastructure Europe, well below the 90% target, according to Anadolu Ajansı.
• Analysts at Wood Mackenzie say low inventories, strong Asian demand and limited LNG supply growth 'almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027,' per Anadolu Ajansı.
• Energy Aspects' Erisa Pasko warned that withdrawal capacity declines materially once storage falls below roughly 40%, per Anadolu Ajansı.
• Germany's storage is at 55.8%, the most exposed major market, per Gas Infrastructure Europe figures cited by Anadolu Ajansı.
• Romania is an outlier, reaching 76.26% storage capacity, above the EU average and on track for an 80% target by Oct. 1, per the Energy Ministry via Stiri pe surse.
• Goldman Sachs estimates European gas prices may need to exceed €100/MWh in December to rebuild inventories, per Bloomberg cited by Anadolu Ajansı.
• The European Commission said there is 'no immediate risk for security of gas supply,' per Anadolu Ajansı, but analysts note that flexibility from Russian pipeline gas and coal switching has largely disappeared.
• Repairs to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, damaged in a strike, could take up to five weeks, threatening up to 4% of global oil supply, per ProtoThema.

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