AfD hits record 30% in German poll, leads Merz's conservatives by 10 points
A GMS survey published Monday puts the far-right AfD at a record 30% nationally, with Chancellor Merz's CDU/CSU at 20% — its lowest ever for that pollster. The gap comes days before two state elections seen as a test of Merz's leadership, after the AfD's 43.8% win in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6.
Bottom line — With the AfD at 30% and Merz's coalition lacking a majority, the chancellor's future is in question before September 20 state votes.
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- The AfD's Saxony-Anhalt win brought record turnout of 77.8%, up 17.5 points from 2021, per Interfax-Ukraine.
- In Saxony-Anhalt, an AfD-BSW pact would give 44 seats — a majority — though the BSW has ruled out a formal coalition, per The Conversation.
- A Tagesschau legal analysis found roughly two-thirds of the AfD's migration proposals would conflict with German, EU, or international law, per The Conversation.
- AfD co-leader Alice Weidel urged Merz to push for peace talks on Ukraine 'like the US is doing,' but Merz said Germany will 'stay the course,' per DW.
- Voters in Saxony-Anhalt ranked peace in Europe as their second-most important issue after social security, ahead of immigration, per DW.
- The AfD's TikTok strategy, built by state leader Ulrich Siegmund since 2021, helped mobilize non-voters, per Interfax-Ukraine.
- A July 2026 DeZIM study found the AfD rated least electable among voters with a migration background, per The Conversation.