Waller puts a possible 0.5-point Fed hike on the December agenda
After October US inflation exceeded forecasts, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a half-percentage-point increase should be considered at the December meeting; he also said he favours a hike even if inflation moderates. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects two more quarter-point increases before a pause, while markets sharply raised their expectations for a December hike, according to CNBC, Bloomberg and VG Markets.
Bottom line — The Fed meets on 8–9 December, with Waller and Logan arguing for a faster or larger response to persistent inflation.
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The US CPI rose 0.4% in October, against forecasts of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, against forecasts of 0.2%, VG Markets reports.
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Waller said failing to deliver hikes already signalled to markets could damage the Fed’s credibility, CNBC reports.
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Markets priced a 99% chance of a quarter-point December hike after the data, up from 84% the previous day, VG Markets reports.
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A Reuters survey cited by VG Markets found all 101 economists expected a quarter-point increase; 56 thought it would be the cycle’s last, while 45 expected at least two further hikes.
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Logan said she envisaged two further quarter-point hikes before the Fed paused to assess their effects, CNBC reports.
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The October inflation release included monthly changes but lacked some year-on-year comparisons: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said it had not collected October 2025 survey data because of a lapse in appropriations, el7.ai reports.